Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is preparing to take his 2027 presidential campaign to Homa Bay and Migori counties, hoping to win support in a region where the late Raila Odinga built one of Kenya’s strongest political bases.

But winning over Luo Nyanza may prove difficult. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) retains a strong political identity and grassroots presence, despite internal divisions and its cooperation arrangement with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Kalonzo said on Monday that he could defeat Ruto in Luo Nyanza if selected as the United Opposition’s presidential candidate for the 2027 election. His planned tour will test whether his long association with Raila can translate into support for his own presidential ambitions.

The visit, initially scheduled for midweek, was postponed following consultations. It comes as opposition leaders consider how to unite voters ahead of the next general election.

Raila’s legacy presents both an opportunity and a challenge

Kalonzo served as Raila’s running mate in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections. Although Raila selected Martha Karua as his running mate in 2022, Kalonzo continued to support his former political partner.

That history could help Kalonzo establish a connection with voters in Luo Nyanza. But analysts caution that working alongside Raila does not necessarily guarantee that his supporters will embrace Kalonzo as a presidential candidate.

Charles Nyambuga, a political analyst and lecturer at Maseno University, said Kalonzo had yet to establish a strong presence in the region.

“Kalonzo doesn’t seem to have hit the campaign mode. He hasn’t hit the road, so he is not seen as a big threat. He doesn’t have much support in Nyanza,” Nyambuga told The Star.

He also pointed to the role of the Linda Mwananchi movement, which has emerged as a gathering point for ODM leaders opposed to the party’s cooperation with Ruto.

“The greatest opponent of Ruto in Nyanza is Linda Mwananchi,” Nyambuga said, adding that the movement’s ability to organise and mobilise voters could influence the political contest.

ODM divisions could reshape the contest

ODM’s cooperation with UDA has exposed disagreements within the party, creating an opening for opposition figures seeking to attract voters dissatisfied with the arrangement.

The Linda Mwananchi movement, associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo, has become part of that debate.

However, dissatisfaction with ODM’s political direction does not automatically mean its supporters will back Kalonzo. The movement’s leaders have their own constituencies and political interests, which could shape their decisions ahead of 2027.

Geoffrey Mboya, another political analyst, said Kalonzo’s outreach to Nyanza and Western Kenya was part of a wider effort by opposition leaders to bring together different regional voting blocs.

“The emerging coalition calculations revolve around how to combine different regional bases without alienating leaders who have their own presidential ambitions. Kalonzo’s push into Nyanza and Western Kenya is part of that wider national equation,” Mboya told Daily Nation.

He added that Kalonzo’s association with Raila gave him an established political history in the two regions, but warned that the current political environment differed from the elections in which the two leaders worked together.

The challenge of building a local network

Beyond his relationship with Raila, Kalonzo must persuade local leaders, elected representatives and grassroots organisers that his candidacy offers a viable path to victory.

His national profile and years in opposition politics may help him attract attention. Yet turning public appearances into votes will require sustained engagement and support from influential figures on the ground.

He must also contend with competition within the United Opposition. Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i and Martha Karua, who also worked with Raila, have their own presidential ambitions.

The contest is therefore not simply about whether Kalonzo can win over Luo Nyanza. It is also about whether opposition leaders can agree on a candidate capable of bringing their different political bases together.

As the 2027 election approaches, Kalonzo’s visits to Homa Bay and Migori will offer an early test of his appeal in a region where Raila’s political legacy remains influential. The larger question is whether that legacy can be transferred to another leader — and whether voters are ready to make that choice.