Raila Commands 20 Counties ahead of August Poll-Info Track Opinion Poll Reveals

By Mujidu Victor

Azimio Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga has consolidated votes from 20 Counties out of the 47 Counties. They include Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Makueni, Machakos, Kitui, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Nyamira and Nairobi County.

While his main rival William Ruto controls 16 Counties out of the 47. These include Isiolo, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kericho, Bomet, Baringo, Nandi and Elgeyo-Marakwet.

The recent opinion polls by Info Track opinions reveal that Azimio’s Presidential Candidate consolidates the highest number of votes at 42% in his 20 counties, a percentage which is equivalent to 9.3 million votes.

Kenya Kwanza Presidential Candidate William Ruto closely follows with 38%, a percentage equivalent to 8.4 million votes in his16 leading counties.

Raila’s popularity flourished in 35 counties while Ruto leads his popularity in 38 counties, both having a similar percentage, 25%.

However, this becomes a setback because both do meet the 25% threshold but miss the 50+1% as stipulated in the Kenyan Constitution.

The political bonfire is examined regionally where Ruto holds eel by the tail in the Mt. Kenya region where both scramble for a stake to bag.

The Info Track opinion shows the Mt. Kenya region to be Ruto’s bedroom because he leads in the all-mountain region.

“In mountain region, Ruto is leading in all counties that is Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri and Kirinyaga county. Ruto gathered all in the mountain and scattered none,” said the CEO Angela Ambitho.

Raila on the other hand consolidates the Nyanza region votes where Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, and Nyamira become his stronghold backyard.

In the Northern region, Raila controls votes from Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Marsabit while Ruto becomes the special envoy of Isiolo votes.

In the Coast region, Ruto suffers a big slide after the polls stated that Raila spearhead votes from three counties, Mombasa, Kilifi, and Taita-Taveta.

“After having done the research, we found that Ruto is less popular in coastal counties. Raila therefore, taking the lead in Mombasa, Kilifi, and Taita-Taveta county,” she added.

However, due to Kalonzo’s maximum output in the Azimio coalition, he managed to centralize the lower Eastern votes and thus, making Raila emerge as the most popular candidate than his close opponent William Ruto.

“Raila is leading in the three counties of lower eastern that is Makueni, Machackos, and Kitui and this became duable after Kalonzo joined back to Azimio,” said Angela.

Kalonzo’s initial decision of bolting out from the Azimio-Oka coalition interfered with the numbers and left almost 21% undecided. This however contributes to the unsettled 50+1% threshold required for one to be the president of the Republic of Kenya.

“Kalonzo’s undecisive moment brought confusion to the lower eastern voters and hence caused a significant figure of 21% voters undecided,” said Mrs Angela.

Regional votes consolidation

The Info Track research platform analyzed the votes region-wise and found that in the Nyanza region, Raila Odinga is leading with 73% while Ruto has 12%. In Nairobi County, Raila is tilting the merging with 50% while William Ruto scores 30%.

In the Coastal region, Raila becomes a bigwig with a 49% score against his opponent William Ruto who scores 29%. In the northern region, Raila flags with 49% against Ruto who bags 32% of the votes.

In the Western region, Raila holds 48% of the votes while Ruto controls 28%. In lower eastern, Raila shielded 41% of the votes, Ruto holds 32%, and 21% were left undecided due to Kalonzo’s mixed signals.

In the Mt. Kenya region, Ruto breaks the record by scoring 52% against his opponent Raila Odinga who scores 27% of the mountain votes. In the South Rift, Ruto still emerged as the top scorer with 59% while Raila scores 25%. North Rift, Ruto slashed Raila with 56% votes against 20%.

11 counties serving as Battling ground

While Raila and Ruto tilting the margin in the 20 and 16 counties respectively, they still have to pull their muscles hard in the remaining eleven counties that serve as a no man’s land.

Among the counties are three coast region counties; Tana-River, Kwale, and Lamu. Turkana county which is located in the northeast is also considered a battleground between the two though Raila leads with a slight margin.

In the South Rift counties; Narok and Kajiado are also stipulated to be among the hot space areas to toil for many votes.

North Rift counties; Samburu, Nakuru, West-Pokot including the Western region counties; Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia serve among the 11 counties yet to decide their favourite presidential candidate.

According to the CEO Angela Ambitho, anyone who will gain political momentum in the 11 counties will achieve the 50+1 votes.