The world has been warned to prepare for a powerful El Niño. Its effects could be felt long after the weather pattern peaks in December 2026.

The warning was issued on October 21 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Its Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, said the event could exceed the limits of records used over the past four decades.

Sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific are forecast to rise sharply. They could reach 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, according to the WMO’s latest seasonal climate outlook.

Weather Risks Could Rise

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It develops when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm.

These changes can alter rainfall and temperatures across the world. Some regions may face severe drought, while others could experience heavy rain and flooding.

Higher temperatures may also worsen heat exposure. The risks are expected to grow as the event strengthens, with consequences for farming, water supplies, health and livelihoods.

The WMO has warned that the effects could continue into 2027, even after the event reaches its expected peak.

East Africa Faces Flood Concerns

East Africa is among the regions being watched closely. Wetter-than-normal conditions are considered more likely in parts of the region during the October–December rainy season.

That raises concerns about flooding and heavy rainfall. Communities in flood-prone areas could face disruption to homes, roads and essential services if severe conditions develop.

However, the outlook does not mean that flooding will occur everywhere. Seasonal forecasts show broad patterns, not the timing or location of individual weather events. National and local forecasts remain essential for specific warnings.

Other Regions Face Different Threats

In Southern Africa, a greater risk of drier conditions could affect crops, water supplies and rural livelihoods as the rainy season begins.

Parts of Southeast Asia could experience warmer weather and reduced rainfall. These conditions may place additional pressure on agriculture and water resources while increasing heat and wildfire risks.

Across the Americas, rainfall patterns are also expected to shift. Some areas may receive heavier rainfall, while parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon face increased drought risks.

The impact will vary by region, depending on local conditions and how El Niño interacts with other climate influences.

Vulnerable Communities at Greater Risk

The effects could be especially severe for people already facing hardship. Refugees, displaced families and communities living in conflict zones may have limited access to safe housing, clean water, sanitation and healthcare.

Extreme weather can place further pressure on these services. Floods may damage homes and infrastructure, while drought can threaten food production and access to water.

The WMO is working with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and other partners to turn climate forecasts into practical preparations.

WMO Calls for Early Action

Saulo said the available forecasts and warning systems could help governments reduce the human cost of extreme weather.

The priority, she said, is to ensure that vulnerable communities are protected before conditions worsen. Governments and humanitarian agencies have been urged to coordinate their preparations and act on available warnings.

“We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent many of its worst human consequences,” Saulo said.

The warning comes with an important distinction: a strong El Niño does not guarantee a humanitarian disaster. Its effects can be reduced when accurate forecasts are shared and timely action is taken.

For now, the WMO is urging countries to use the available lead time to prepare. The coming months will be critical for protecting lives, livelihoods and essential services.